The retirement of four members recently nominated by the BJP from the Rajya Sabha has reduced the party’s strength in the upper house of the Indian Parliament. With his departure, the BJP’s tally has dwindled to 86, and the broader National Democratic Alliance (NDA) now has 101 seats, well below the majority threshold of 113 in the full house of 245 members.
Currently, the operating strength of Rajya Sabha stands at 225 members due to vacancies.
The Congress-led Bharat Alliance currently has 87 members, indicating a close contest in the Rajya Sabha. This scenario puts the BJP in a position where it must seek support from non-NDA parties to pass the law.
Key potential allies include Tamil Nadu’s AIADMK and Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSR Congress Party from Andhra Pradesh, which may collectively contribute 15 votes. However, with strained relations with the AIADMK and changing equations with other regional parties, the BJP’s ability to garner the necessary support for legislation may face challenges.
Further complicating the legislative strategy of the BJP is the withdrawal of issue-based support from Odisha’s former ally, the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), following its electoral defeat to the BJP in the recent state elections.
For the current composition of Rajya Sabha, there are 20 vacant seats, 11 of these are expected to be filled in the upcoming elections. The BJP-led alliance has strong chances of getting additional seats from states like Assam, Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Tripura. Success in these elections could potentially restore or even increase the NDA’s strength in the Rajya Sabha.
The outcome of these elections could be crucial for both the ruling coalition and the opposition, especially in securing positions like the Leader of the Opposition, which the Congress aims to claim.